A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
